Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,466
2 New Jersey 16,932
3 Massachusetts 12,908
4 Rhode Island 12,607
5 Connecticut 10,943
6 District of Columbia 10,699
7 Delaware 8,414
8 Illinois 7,947
9 Louisiana 7,623
10 Maryland 7,020
11 Nebraska 5,749
12 Pennsylvania 5,323
13 Michigan 5,305
14 Iowa 5,029
15 South Dakota 4,721
16 Indiana 4,454
17 Mississippi 4,020
18 Colorado 3,953
19 Virginia 3,855
20 Georgia 3,594
21 Minnesota 3,134
22 New Mexico 3,022
23 Kansas 2,972
24 New Hampshire 2,844
25 North Dakota 2,749
26 Tennessee 2,713
27 Alabama 2,661
28 Washington 2,649
29 Ohio 2,518
30 Utah 2,407
31 Nevada 2,370
32 Wisconsin 2,331
33 Florida 2,209
34 California 2,179
35 Arizona 2,046
36 North Carolina 1,927
37 Missouri 1,875
38 Kentucky 1,865
39 Texas 1,799
40 South Carolina 1,781
41 Arkansas 1,657
42 Vermont 1,512
43 Idaho 1,402
44 Oklahoma 1,398
45 Wyoming 1,359
46 Maine 1,353
47 Oregon 901
48 Puerto Rico 897
49 West Virginia 874
50 Alaska 549
51 Hawaii 447
52 Montana 447

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 214
2 District of Columbia 202
3 Maryland 194
4 Delaware 179
5 Illinois 167
6 New Jersey 152
7 Connecticut 149
8 Massachusetts 143
9 Nebraska 133
10 Iowa 128
11 Minnesota 118
12 Virginia 98
13 Alabama 87
14 North Dakota 85
15 Indiana 77
16 Mississippi 75
17 New York 71
18 South Dakota 71
19 Georgia 69
20 Kansas 67
21 Louisiana 67
22 New Hampshire 66
23 Michigan 64
24 New Mexico 63
25 Pennsylvania 62
26 Wisconsin 57
27 Tennessee 55
28 North Carolina 53
29 Colorado 49
30 Utah 49
31 California 48
32 Arizona 43
33 Ohio 43
34 Kentucky 40
35 Nevada 39
36 Texas 38
37 Maine 32
38 Florida 29
39 Arkansas 26
40 Washington 25
41 Missouri 23
42 South Carolina 23
43 Puerto Rico 22
44 Wyoming 19
45 Oklahoma 18
46 Idaho 15
47 Oregon 14
48 West Virginia 13
49 Montana 3
50 Alaska 2
51 Vermont 2
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,467
2 New Jersey 1,209
3 Connecticut 989
4 Massachusetts 880
5 District of Columbia 576
6 Louisiana 561
7 Rhode Island 507
8 Michigan 506
9 Pennsylvania 374
10 Illinois 358
11 Maryland 351
12 Delaware 318
13 Indiana 276
14 Colorado 225
15 Mississippi 191
16 Georgia 157
17 Ohio 152
18 Minnesota 139
19 New Hampshire 139
20 Washington 137
21 New Mexico 134
22 Iowa 126
23 Virginia 125
24 Nevada 122
25 Alabama 106
26 Missouri 105
27 Arizona 102
28 Florida 97
29 California 88
30 Vermont 86
31 Kentucky 85
32 Wisconsin 82
33 South Carolina 79
34 Oklahoma 75
35 Nebraska 72
36 North Carolina 68
37 Kansas 67
38 North Dakota 64
39 Maine 54
40 South Dakota 51
41 Texas 49
42 Tennessee 45
43 Idaho 43
44 Puerto Rico 39
45 West Virginia 38
46 Arkansas 35
47 Oregon 34
48 Utah 28
49 Wyoming 19
50 Montana 14
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 14
2 Massachusetts 13
3 Rhode Island 12
4 Connecticut 11
5 District of Columbia 11
6 Illinois 9
7 Louisiana 8
8 Maryland 7
9 Pennsylvania 7
10 Delaware 6
11 New York 6
12 Indiana 5
13 Iowa 5
14 Michigan 5
15 Mississippi 5
16 Colorado 4
17 New Hampshire 4
18 Ohio 4
19 Arizona 3
20 Minnesota 3
21 Nevada 3
22 Alabama 2
23 Georgia 2
24 Kentucky 2
25 Missouri 2
26 Nebraska 2
27 New Mexico 2
28 North Dakota 2
29 Virginia 2
30 California 1
31 Florida 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 South Carolina 1
34 Utah 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Wyoming 1
38 Alaska 0
39 Arkansas 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Idaho 0
42 Kansas 0
43 Maine 0
44 Montana 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Tennessee 0
50 Texas 0
51 Vermont 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,652 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 78,698 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 74,171 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 64,543 4 99
Lake Tennessee 57,440 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 6,489 245 92
Richland South Carolina 3,096 617 80
Pierce Washington 2,029 913 70
Orange California 1,494 1175 62
York South Carolina 1,128 1431 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Early Georgia 2,846 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,964 4 99
Nassau New York 1,879 5 99
Richland South Carolina 149 535 82
Pierce Washington 78 820 73
Davidson Tennessee 72 858 72
Orange California 31 1270 59
York South Carolina 18 1482 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons